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NBA 2025-26: Point Differential Analysis

Interactive visualization of team performance patterns

Average point margin throughout the game. Solid line = mean, shaded band = 25th-75th percentile range, dashed lines = min/max. Filter by period or opponent quality.

Time: 0:00

Average margin
25th-75th percentile
Min / Max

Teams

# Team Record Diff Lead Deficit

Win Probability Heatmap

Win probability at each margin and minute. Green = high win probability, red = low.

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100%
LoseWin

Margin Threshold Analysis

Positive thresholds: games that reached that value or better. Negative thresholds: games that fell to that value or worse.

Teams

Margin at Checkpoints

Average margin at key points. Click headers to sort.

Team 6 min 12 min (Q1) 18 min 24 min (Half) 30 min 36 min (Q3) 42 min 48 min Final

Comeback & Blown Lead Analysis

Team Comeback Wins Avg Deficit Max Deficit Wins No Trail Blown Losses Avg Lead Max Lead Losses No Lead

Garbage Time Analysis

Team Frequency % Total In Wins In Losses Win % Successful Failed Success % Avg Start Avg Duration Avg Diff

Average Best & Worst Runs

Team 1min Best 1min Worst 3min Best 3min Worst 6min Best 6min Worst Quarter Best Quarter Worst Half Best Half Worst

Maximum Best & Worst Runs

Team 1min Best 1min Worst 3min Best 3min Worst 6min Best 6min Worst Quarter Best Quarter Worst Half Best Half Worst

Burst Frequency Analysis

Non-overlapping scoring runs per game. Bottom-right = elite (explosive but composed).

Threshold: +5

Lead Changes Per Game

Timeout Analysis

Average point differential around timeouts (-2min to +2min). Normalized: 0 = margin at timeout moment.

Team

Mode

Timeout Efficiency Rankings

Player Activity Timeline

On-court percentage over game time. Select a team, then tick players.

Active Players

No players selected

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Players

Game Shape Clusters

Games clustered by margin progression (from winner's perspective). Hover for details.

Filter by Team

Cluster Shapes

NBA Clutch Index

Season 2025-26 | Showing 0 of 0 games

Team Avg Max Min

Summary

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Formula

$$\text{Clutch Index} = \Bigl(1 + \gamma \cdot L\Bigr) \cdot \int_0^T \frac{1 + \alpha \cdot \mathbf{1}\{\text{trailing team has ball}\}}{\lvert m(t) \rvert + \varepsilon} \cdot \tilde{t}^{\,2} \, dt$$

$L$ = number of lead changes in the period

$m(t)$ = point margin at time $t$ (home − away)

$\tilde{t} = t / T$ = normalized time (0 at period start, 1 at period end)

$\mathbf{1}\{\cdot\}$ = indicator function (1 if true, 0 otherwise)

Parameters

Parameter Symbol Value Description
CLUTCH_ALPHA $\alpha$ 0.3 Possession bonus when trailing team has the ball
CLUTCH_BETA $\varepsilon$ 1.0 Denominator offset (smooths small margins, prevents ÷0)
CLUTCH_GAMMA $\gamma$ 0.15 Lead change multiplier

Components

1. Instantaneous Tension

At each moment, tension is inversely proportional to the margin:

$$\text{Tension}(t) = \frac{1 + \alpha \cdot \mathbf{1}\{\text{trailing has ball}\}}{\lvert m(t) \rvert + \varepsilon}$$

Examples:

2. Time Weighting

Later moments matter more via quadratic weighting:

$$w(t) = \tilde{t}^{\,2} = \left(\frac{t - t_{\text{start}}}{T}\right)^2$$

For Q4 ($T = 720$ seconds):

3. Lead Change Multiplier

More lead changes = more exciting game:

$$\text{Multiplier} = 1 + \gamma \cdot L$$

Example: 4 lead changes → $1 + 0.15 \times 4 = 1.60$

Overtime Handling

Each overtime period contributes at 50% weight:

$$\text{Clutch}_{\text{total}} = \text{Clutch}_{\text{Q4}} + \sum_{i=1}^{n_{\text{OT}}} 0.5 \cdot \text{Clutch}_{\text{OT}_i}$$

Interpretation

Clutch Index Interpretation
< 0.05Blowout — game decided early
0.05 – 0.15Comfortable win — some tension
0.15 – 0.25Competitive — close game
0.25 – 0.40Clutch — exciting finish
> 0.40Instant classic — overtime thriller
Note: The integral is computed numerically by sampling every 10 seconds during Q4 and OT periods.

Momentum Analysis

Velocity (pts/min) vs Current Margin | Forward window: 60s

Team

Interpretation

▲ +vel at deficit → comeback
▼ -vel at deficit → collapse
▲ +vel at lead → extend
▼ -vel at lead → regression
Gray dashed = League Avg
Point Diff (Q4+OT)
HOME
AWAY